Markets will be focused on the minutes from the last FOMC today

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Published Date 10/9/2024

Markets this morning looking for the FOMC minutes from the September meeting. The Few Fed officials that have spoken added to and support that a 25 bp cut is still on the table. At the September meeting there was one dissent to the 50 bp cut, a rare dissent from a Fed governor, Michelle Bowman voted against the large cut, the rest were in line agreeing to the big cut. One thing traders are looking for this afternoon is any comments in the minutes of uncertainty by other members.

Not a surprise MBA mortgage applications declined last week. Applications in the US fell by 5.1% from the previous week in the first week of October, extending the 1.3% drop in the previous week and cutting the near 30% cumulative surge in mortgage demand in September. Applications to a refinance a home loan sank by 9% from the previous week but remained twice as high as the corresponding period of the previous year. Purchase applications held steady, down 0.1%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -38, NASDAQ +3, S&P -2. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.04% +2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -9 bps from yesterday’s close and +11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $39B of 10 year notes, re-opening the issue from August. Yesterday’s 3 year note auction was lacking demand.

At 2 pm the FOMC minutes from the September 17th meeting.

Milton hurricane expected to hit later this evening. Tampa Bay is bracing for the possibility of a direct hit. It would be the first time a major hurricane has struck the region since 1921.

The 10 year note is technically oversold, the 14 day RSI at the historic high that usually implies the market will pause. The reaction to the FOMC minutes this afternoon, if any, will be key for the near term. September CPI tomorrow is expected to confirm inflation is declining.

Source: TBWS

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