Markets will be focused on key labor data revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today

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Published Date 8/21/2024

Weekly MBA mortgage applications declined last week after a stellar week the week before. Overall apps -10.1% from +16.8%, purchase apps -5.2% from +2.8%, re-finance apps -15.2% after leaping 34.5% the prior week.

Two events this afternoon; Treasury will auction $16B of 20 year bonds at 1 pm ET, at 2 pm the minutes from the July FOMC meeting. The minutes always get focus, this time maybe not so much since the meeting occurred prior to the huge decline in jobs reported in July that rocked markets.

The key data today is the revision from the BLS of job growth from April 2023 to March 2024. The big firms are expecting a reduction of jobs of about 50K a month over the last year, if the revisions, which are preliminary, fall more than the forecasts it should compel the bullish view of a firm labor market to wane. Before the revisions being released today, based on the individual monthly reports the total of job creations was 2.9 million, 240K a month average. If the estimates are correct or worse than estimates, it would clearly suggest the employment sector has been cooling longer than is presently thought.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +78, NASDAQ +21, S&P +10. 10 year note at 9:30 am 3.81% unchanged. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bp from yesterday’s close and +8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 6.0 coupon +6 bps and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 1 pm $16B 20 year bond auction.

At 2 pm the FOMC minutes from the July meeting.

Source: TBWS

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