Markets will be focused on the FOMC policy statement this afternoon

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Published Date 7/31/2024

Markets began the day higher ahead of the FOMC and Powell this afternoon where both the policy and Powell will green light a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. The 10 year note over the past two days has dropped below technical resistance at 4.20%/4.16%, at 8:30 am ET the 10 year note traded at 4.11% -3 bps.

8:15 am, July private jobs reported from ADP were less than 154K expected at 122K from 155K in June. The data reported at 8:15 am, the initial reaction added to the decline in rates and increased the rate cut outlook in September.

8:30 am, Q2 employment cost index, expected +1.0% reported +0.9%, year/year +4.1% down from 4.2% in Q1.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +17, NASDAQ +343, S&P +67. The 10 year at 9:30 am -3 bps at 4.11%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +6 bps from yesterday’s close and +21 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 6.5 coupon +7 bps and +21 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am July Chicago purchasing managers index expected at 45.4 from 47.4 in June, the index at 45.3, still under 50 in contraction since September 2023.

At 10 am June pending home sales thought to be +1.1% increased 4.8%.

At 2 pm the FOMC policy statement.

At 2:30 pm Jerome Powell’s press conference.

The Mid-east is heating up. Crude oil prices increased over $2.00 overnight.

Source: TBWS

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