The reported US trade deficit for September was higher than expected

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Published Date 11/5/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +21 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Trade: The September Goods and Services Trade Balance was $-84.4B versus estimates of $-84.1B

Services: The October ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (Services) which accounts for approximately 2/3 of our economic engine will hit at 10 am ET and is expected to continue to show expansion in that sector with a reading in the range of 53.8. The focus will be on the Prices Paid which really shot up in the ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 10Y Treasury note auction at 1 pm today.

Central Banks: The Reserve Bank of Australia bucked the recent wave of rate cuts by keeping their interest rate at 4.35%. We will hear from ECB President LaGarde today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets are under mild pressure. Volatility has started low and will stay that way with markets focused on the election.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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