August Durable Goods Orders boosted by defense spending

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Published Date 9/26/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -26 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to 218Kversus estimates of 225K with the 4 week moving average dropping to 224K. Continuing Claims increased to 1.834M.

Manufacturing: Headline August Durable Goods Orders were 9.9% versus estimates of -2.6%. Ex Transportation, it was up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.1% and Ex Defense it was down -0.2% versus +10.3% in July.

GDP: The 2nd QTR GDP data remained at 3.0% which was expected, this is now the third time this data set has been released.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Fed Chair Powell, Kugler, Bowman, Williams, Collins, Barr and Cook.

Treasury Auction: We have a 7 year note auction at 1 pm ET.

Central Banks: The Swiss National Bank lowered their interest rate down to 1.00%.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under mild pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels with many waiting on tomorrow's PCE data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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