The June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in below expectations

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Published Date 6/25/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: Aprils YOY Case Shiller Metro City Index showed an annual increase of housing prices of 7.2% versus estimates of 6.9%. The FHFA Housing Price Index showed a MOM increase of 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Manufacturing: The June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will hit at 10 am ET and is expected to see a small bump from 0 to 2. The report came in at -10

The Consumer: We will get Consumer Confidence at 10 am. Last time around it surprised to the upside with a reading of 102. This time around it is expected to land right at 100. The 12 month inflation expectations will carry the most weight with bond traders. The report came in at 100.4.

Treasury Auction: We kick off three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 2 year note auction at 1 pm.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Bowman and Cook.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets are moving within a narrow channel. Volatility has started low with little chance of breaking out of our channel.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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