Markets calm with little economic news today

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Published Date 6/21/2024

Yesterday the 10 year note yield increased 4 bps, this morning the note began down 4 bps. No serious news overnight but in Europe manufacturing and service sector FLASH PMI indexes were weaker than forecasts, (see below for the US PMI). That is it, no other news that has impact on US markets.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +20, NASDAQ -26, S&P -7. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.24% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +1 bp from yesterday’s close and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am June FLASH PMI manufacturing and service sector indexes; manufacturing index expected at 51.0 from 51.3, reported at 51.7, the service sector index thought to be 53.7 from 54.8, reported at 55.1. The composite of the two 54.6 from 54.5 in May. The market reaction increased the 10 year note yield up 2 bps and MBS prices down 1 bp.

At 10 am May existing home sales at 4.11 million against forecasts of 4.10 million, month/month -0.7%, year/year -2.9% from -1.9% in April.

Couple of Fed officials; Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin, “My personal view is let’s get more conviction before moving”… “There are times where we will want to give forward guidance and have given forward guidance, this doesn’t feel like one of those times to me. It doesn’t feel like a forward guidance time.” Sounds like how he acted at his press conference. The Fed will be able to cut if inflation continues to cool as it did last month, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said.

Just four sessions this week with very little change from last Friday. The main event, May retail sales that were weaker than estimates. Next week promises to be more active with PCE inflation next Friday, June consumer confidence index, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, final Q1 GDP and June personal income and spending.

Source: TBWS

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