July Retail Sales data were much stronger than expected

___

Published Date 8/15/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +5 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Retail Sales: The July data set was much stronger than expected with the Headline Retail Sales coming in at 1.0% versus estimates of 0.3%. Ex-Autos, Retail Sales were up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.1%. The Control Group was up 0.3% which is a slower pace than June's pace of 0.9%.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lighter than expected 227K versus estimates of 235K. The four week moving average dropped to 236K. Continuing Claims were 1.864M versus estimates of 1.880M.

Manufacturing: More weakness in the manufacturing sector as the August Empire Manufacturing Index contracted by -4.7 but that was less-worse than expectations for -6.0. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was down -7 versus estimates of +7. July Industrial Production dropped by -0.6% versus estimates of -0.3%. Capacity Utilization dropped to 77.8% versus estimates of 785%.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Musalem and Harker.

Housing: We got the August NAHB index at 10 pm ET. It was expected to be unchanged at 42 but fell to 39.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are under pressure. Volatility has started high but will likely moderate before end of day.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Millenium Home Mortgage, LLC NMLS # 51519 Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, CT Mortgage Banker 1st and 2nd Mortgages Licensed as MHM Home Mortgage, Licensed by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking. All interest rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice. THIS ENTIRE SITE IS NOT INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MORTGAGE LOAN CUSTOMERS IN NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, OR CONNECTICUT.