Published Date 2/29/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market improved by +18 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.
Inflation: The Fed's key measure of Inflation, Core (ex food and energy) PCE increased by 0.4% which matched market expectations but was a pretty big jump in pace from December's 0.1%. YOY, it was up 2.8% versus estimates of 2.8%. The Headline PCE increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis and 2.4% on a YOY basis, both matched market expectations.
Incomes and Spending: We got a big beat in January Personal Incomes, up 1.0% versus estimates of only 0.4%, however most of that beat is due to dividends. Personal Spending hit 0.2% which matched expectations but was more than half December's pace of 0.7%.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 215K versus estimates of 210K. The more closely watched four week moving average dropped to 212K. Continuing Claims were ugly, breaking above 1.9M, (1.905M) versus estimates of 1.874M.
Manufacturing: The February Chicago PMI cratered down to 44 versus estimates of 48.
The Fed: Today we will hear from Goolsbee, Bostic and Mester.
This morning markets are getting a small boost on the PCE data. Volatility has started high but should moderate later in the day.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Millenium Home Mortgage, LLC NMLS # 51519 Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, CT Mortgage Banker 1st and 2nd Mortgages Licensed as MHM Home Mortgage, Licensed by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking. All interest rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice. THIS ENTIRE SITE IS NOT INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MORTGAGE LOAN CUSTOMERS IN NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, OR CONNECTICUT.
NMLS: 65345
Millenium Home Mortgage LLC
211 North Ave East, Westfield NJ
Company NMLS: 65378
Office: 908-588-7601
Cell: 908-875-7918
Email: jgalayda@mhmlender.com
NMLS: 65345
Cell: 908-875-7918
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