Volatility is high as markets react to a cornucopia of data

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Published Date 11/27/2024

Prior to 8:30 am ET the 10 year note at 4.26% -5 bps. After the 8:30 am data the 10 year note slipped another bp to 4.25%. The key data hit at 10 am with the Fed’s preferred inflation data, PCE. Today has plenty of data to absorb.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications were better than forecasts; total applications expected +1.7% increased 6.3%, purchase applications thought to be +2.0% increased 12.4%, and re-finance applications declined 2.5% against forecasts of +1.8%.

8:30 am data: weekly jobless claims at 213K -2K from the previous week, a seven-month low. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility fell by 1,250 to 217,000. On the other hand, the non-seasonally adjusted claim count rose by 29,101 to 243,389, with sharp increases in California (+4,974), Illinois (+2,924) and Pennsylvania (+2,758). Moreover, outstanding claims rose to 1,907,000 in the prior week, the most since November 2021. October durable goods orders expected +0.5% increased 0.2%, ex-transportation orders month/month +0.1% with forecasts of +0.2%, core capital goods month/month -0.2% from +0.3% in September. The second look at Q3 GDP unchanged from the advance report released last month at +2.8%; the annual rate of personal consumption expenditures increased 3.5% slightly lower that 3.7% estimates. October US trade deficit thought to be -$104.5B reported -$99.1B. Imports fell 5.4% while exports declined 3.2%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +30, NASDAQ -59, S&P -10. 10 year note 4.25% -6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am November Chicago purchasing managers index, expected at 44.2 from 41.6, reported at 40.2, the Chicago region continues to weaken.

At 10 am, key October inflation data and personal income and spending. PCE month/month +0.2%, year/year 2.3% +2.3% as expected but up from 2.1% in September. Core PCE +0.3% month/month, year/year 2.8% from 2.7% in September; the data is what estimates were. October personal income month/month +0.6% against +0.3%, personal spending +0.4% as expected.

Also at 10 am, October pending home sales, expected -1.8% from +7.4% in September. Sales increased 2.0%.

At 1 pm $44B 7 year note auction.

Look for trading to thin out this afternoon ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow. Friday the stock market will close at 1 pm, the bond market at 2 pm.

Source: TBWS

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J.C. Mier The Mortgage GOAT

Branch Manager/ Loan Officer

NMLS: 258527

Mortgage Goat LLC

130 N Preston rd #318, Prosper TX 75078

Company NMLS: 258527 /133739

Office: 469-628-4544

Cell: 469-628-4544

Email: jc@themortgagegoat.net

Web: http://www.themortgageGOAT.net