Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 11/25/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +16 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Consumer Affairs, 3) The Fed.

1) Inflation: We will get the Fed's official measure of inflation (PCE) on Wednesday which is expected to rise by 2.8% on a YOY basis in the Core (ex food and energy) reading.

2) Consumer Affairs: We will get the Conference Board's November Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. It is expected to rise to 112.3 which is pretty strong. The higher this reading is, the worse it is for rates.

3) The Fed: We will get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting on Tuesday.

Treasury Auction:

Here is this week's Treasury Auction schedule:

11/25 2 year note

11/26 5 year note

11/27 7 year note

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are getting support as money moves to safety. Volatility has started high but will moderate by the end of the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

J.C. Mier The Mortgage GOAT

Branch Manager/ Loan Officer

NMLS: 258527

Mortgage Goat LLC

130 N Preston rd #318, Prosper TX 75078

Company NMLS: 258527 /133739

Office: 469-628-4544

Cell: 469-628-4544

Email: jc@themortgagegoat.net

Web: http://www.themortgageGOAT.net