Federal Reserve speakers remain cautious

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Published Date 7/19/2024

As a kid we played a game called “keep away” where a person in the circle tries to get the ball away from the others; it was fun. What we have now is Fed officials playing the game, dangling rate cuts on one hand then yanking it back with cautious remarks that inflation is still too high and rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that despite recent improvement in inflation data, she is still looking for more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the central bank’s 2% target. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said he thinks cuts are near but stressed that he will be watching upcoming data closely in the meantime. Markets have priced a 25 bp cut at the September FOMC meeting but even with all the optimistic talk the Fed keeps us guessing.

There are no economic releases today.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -130, NASDAQ -43, S&P -3. 10 year 4.24% +4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -9 bps from yesterday’s close and -15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday; the 6.5 coupon -6 bps from yesterdays close and -10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

The 10 year note increased 4 bps yesterday and is up 4 more this morning. Looking at next week’s calendar, next Friday the Fed’s main inflation report, PCE and the following week the FOMC meeting.

Source: TBWS

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