Initial Weekly Jobless Claims climb to new high

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Published Date 7/18/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected, up 243K versus estimates of 230K. The four week moving average increased to 235K. Continuing Claims also moved higher, 1.867M versus estimates of 1.860M.

Manufacturing: The July Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was much higher than expected with a reading of 13.9 versus estimates of only 2.9.

Outlook: The Leading Economic Indicators for June will be released at 10 am are expected to drop by -0.3%.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Logan, Daly and Bowman.

Central Banks: The European Central Bank kept their key interest rate at 4.25% after cutting at their last meeting. They said at this meeting that they are not on a predefined path of rate cuts and is very much data dependent at each meeting.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are seeing little movement. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

J.C. Mier The Mortgage GOAT

Branch Manager/ Loan Officer

NMLS: 258527

Mortgage Goat LLC

130 N Preston rd #318, Prosper TX 75078

Company NMLS: 258527 /133739

Office: 469-628-4544

Cell: 469-628-4544

Email: jc@themortgagegoat.net

Web: http://www.themortgageGOAT.net