Markets expect volatility despite light economic news this week

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Published Date 7/15/2024

Stock indexes began better in futures trading this morning, rates a little higher, the 10 year note closed Friday at 4.19% at a key resistance level, this morning the note yield began at 4.23% +4 bps with MBS prices -3 bps from Friday.

This week there are no direct inflation releases. The Fed’s inflation data comes from the personal consumption index (PCE) and that won’t hit until July 26th, two weeks from now.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +242, NASDAQ +88, S&P +24. At 9:30 am the 10 year note 4.22% +3 bps from Friday mostly a technical issue that keeps the 10 year note from holding below 4.2%, the last time it traded below it was in mid-March. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from Friday’s close and+9 bps from 9:30 am Friday; the FNMA 6.6 coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from Friday and +9 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

Jerome Powell scheduled at 12:30 pm.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

• Monday,

8:30 am July Empire State manufacturing index (expected -6.0, reported -6.5)

12:30 pm Jerome Powell a Discussion with Chair Jerome H. Powell at the Economic Club of Washington

• Tuesday,

8:30 am June retail sales (month/month -0.2%, ex vehicles +0.1%, ex vehicles and gas +0.1%)

10 am May business inventories (+0.4%)

July NAHB housing market index (43 from 43 in June)

• Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:30 am June housing starts and permits (starts 1.305 million from 1.277 million; permits 1.395 million from 1.386 million)

9:15 am June industrial production and capacity utilization (production +0.3% from +0.9%, cap utilization 78.5% from 78.7%)

1 pm 20 year bond auction

2 pm Fed beige Book

• Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (225K from 222k)

July Philly Fed manufacturing business (3.0 from 1.3)

10 am June leading economic indicators (-0.3% from -0.5%)

Source: TBWS

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