Home Mortgage Alliance Corporation (HMAC)

Consumer Sentiment comes in slightly higher than expected

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Published Date 10/25/2024

A quiet open this morning, the 10 year note at 4.20% -1 bp; UMBS price at 8:30 am ET -1 bp from yesterday. Two data points today, September durable goods orders and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

September Durable goods were expected -0.5% reported -0.8%, August orders revised from 0.0% to -0.8%. Excluding transportation orders, they were better than forecasts at +0.4% with estimates at -0.1% and August revised from +0.5% to +0.6%. Core capital goods increased 0.5% from 0.3% in August, core orders are viewed by investors as a signal of future business prospects. The reaction to the 8:30 am data dropped the 10 year note 1 bps to 4.18%.

The election closing in will keep investors and traders on edge, not wanting to step in before the results and the reactions are known. Next week is full of key data; October employment report, September inflation with PCE, JOLTS job openings, October consumer confidence index, September personal income and spending headline although there are other releases that will get focus.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +189, NASDAQ +116, S&P +32. 10 year note 4.19% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +6 bps from yesterday’s close and +11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the final University of Michigan/Wells Fargo consumer sentiment data, sentiment index expected at 69.0. It was reported at 70.5.

Source: TBWS

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