Home Mortgage Alliance Corporation (HMAC)

Manufacturing data takes a hit even as Consumer Confidence rises

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Published Date 8/27/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -1 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday..

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: The June metro city Case Shiller Home Price Index showed a YOY increase of 6.5% versus estimates of 6.0% but that is a pull back from May's pace of 6.9%. The MOM FHFA Housing Price Index actually showed a decrease in home prices, dropping -.01% versus estimates of 0.2%.

Manufacturing: The August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index showed contraction at -19 versus estimates of -14.

Consumer: The August Consumer Confidence jumped to 103.3 which was a big beat versus estimates of 100.9. July was revised higher from 100.3 to 101.9.

Treasury Auction: We kick off three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 2 year note auction at 1 pm ET.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are moving sideways despite the misses expectations in the early economic reports. Volatility has at moderate levels and will stay that way unless something drastic happens overseas.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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