The September Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected

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Published Date 10/10/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -22 bps yesterday. This may not have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Inflation: The headline September Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.2% versus 0.1% on a MOM basis and 2.4% versus estimates of 2.3% on a YOY basis. Same story for Core (ex food and energy) which was up 0.3% versus 0.2% on a MOM basis and 3.3% versus 3.2% on a YOY basis.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims shot up (due to hurricane) to 258K versus estimates of 230K. Continuing Jobless Claims were 1.861M versus estimates of 1.830M.

Treasury Auction: We have the most important Treasury auction of the month with today's 30 year bond auction at 1 pm ET.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Cook, Barkin and Williams.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are dipping lower on the inflation data. Volatility has started high on the economic data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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