Published Date 6/24/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +5 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) The Fed and 3) The state of the Consumer.
1) Inflation: We get the Fed's preferred key measure of inflation, Core PCE on Friday. Both the Headline and Core readings are expected to move lower on a YOY basis which could give the Fed more cover for one rate cut this year. The market speculation will hinge on if the readings are low enough for the Fed to make a move in September. If the readings are higher than expectations, then expectations for a Fed move will be pushed back.
2) The Fed: We will hear from many Fed Speakers this week the markets will also been keen on learning the results of the latest round of Bank Stress Tests:
06/24 Waller, Daly
06/25 Bowman, Cook
06/26 Bank Stress Tests
06/28 Barkin, Bowman
3) The state of the Consumer: We get both Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment this week. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations will get more weight.
Treasury Auction: Here is this week's Treasury auction schedule:
06/25 2 year note
06/26 5 year note
06/27 7 year note
This morning markets are moving in a very narrow channel. Volatility has started low but will increase dramatically later this week with PCE.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
First
Priority Home Loans is a DBA of Anchor Funding, Inc. NMLS #236419 &
1626581. California
Bureau of Real Estate,
Real
Estate Broker Number 01276087. Loans made or arranged pursuant
to the
California Department of Business Oversight. California Finance Lenders Law
license number 603 L293.
NMLS: 220937
First Priority Home Loans
891 Kuhn Drive #204, Chula Vista CA
Company NMLS: 236419
Office: 619-323-2066
Cell: 619-208-6499
Email: andrefunds4u@sbcglobal.net
NMLS: 220937
Cell: 619-208-6499
9/27/2024
The dream of buying a home with friends can quickly turn into a nightmare when i... view more
9/26/2024
Most Realtors would agree that if there were one thing that can send their buyer... view more
9/26/2024
Headline August Durable Goods Orders were 9.9% versus estimates of -2.6%...... view more
9/25/2024
At 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note at 3.76% +3 bp, MBS prices down...... view more
9/24/2024
In the aftermath of devastating wildfires that have ravaged...... view more
9/23/2024
In a remarkable turn of events, the US housing market has witnessed a dramatic i... view more
9/23/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
9/20/2024
All that money for your dream home just left your account. Soon you’ll hear the ... view more