Published Date 5/29/2024
The markets got hit hard yesterday on the very weak 2 year and 5 year auctions and a huge increase in May consumer confidence index, expected at 95.3 from 97.5 in April, the index increased to 102.0. The 10 year note rate at its highest levels in a month. This morning the 10 year note began at 4.58% +3 bps and MBS prices started -13 bps lower than yesterday.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week declined 5.7% from the prior week that applications were +1.9%; purchase apps -1.1% after falling 1.2% the prior week, re-finance apps declined 13.6% after increasing 7.4% the prior week. Apps the lowest in three months.
Nothing new, Fed officials are saying rate cuts are not going to occur until there is a trend of lower inflation. Inflation has been choppy since the beginning of the year with little or no follow through from month to month. Yesterday Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for "many more months" of data showing declining inflation before contemplating rate cuts. He also indicated that he wouldn't rule out additional rate hikes if inflationary pressures resurface. The idea the fed will begin lowering rates has been rattled recently with Fed folks repeating the same comments, no cuts until inflation is seen as trending lower.
On Friday, the Fed’s go to inflation reading, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE); the estimates are not encouraging. Overall PCE month/month expected +0.3% the same as in March, year/year also the same as March at +2.7%; core excluding food and energy month/month 0.2% down from +0.3% but year/year at 2.8% also the same as in March. Estimates are just that, estimates, but if the actual data matches forecasts it doesn’t take away the Fed’s concerns. At 2.8% inflation and no improvement the rate cut outlook will fade further.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -374 after declining 217 yesterday, NASDAQ opened -126, S&P -42. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.58% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -28 bps from yesterday’s close and -67 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 6.5 coupon -20 bps and -48 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am the Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected at -6 from -7, reported at 0.
NY Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak at 1:45 pm but not likely to say anything out of the norm from Fed officials recently.
At 2 pm the Fed’s Beige Book, details from all 12 Fed districts, usually doesn’t get much of a response from traders.
Yesterday’s increases drove all our short-term technical indicators into bearish positions. If we are going to see improvement today it will come from a strong $44B 7 year auction at 1 pm.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
First
Priority Home Loans is a DBA of Anchor Funding, Inc. NMLS #236419 &
1626581. California
Bureau of Real Estate,
Real
Estate Broker Number 01276087. Loans made or arranged pursuant
to the
California Department of Business Oversight. California Finance Lenders Law
license number 603 L293.
NMLS: 220937
First Priority Home Loans
891 Kuhn Drive #204, Chula Vista CA
Company NMLS: 236419
Office: 619-323-2066
Cell: 619-208-6499
Email: andrefunds4u@sbcglobal.net
NMLS: 220937
Cell: 619-208-6499
9/27/2024
The dream of buying a home with friends can quickly turn into a nightmare when i... view more
9/26/2024
Most Realtors would agree that if there were one thing that can send their buyer... view more
9/26/2024
Headline August Durable Goods Orders were 9.9% versus estimates of -2.6%...... view more
9/25/2024
At 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note at 3.76% +3 bp, MBS prices down...... view more
9/24/2024
In the aftermath of devastating wildfires that have ravaged...... view more
9/23/2024
In a remarkable turn of events, the US housing market has witnessed a dramatic i... view more
9/23/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
9/20/2024
All that money for your dream home just left your account. Soon you’ll hear the ... view more